Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where
ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 22 January 2014. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily
edition. I will be
talking about the GPB/AUD, USD/JPY, NZD/CAD currency pairs, gold, silver and
oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report. Before I can
go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.
Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.
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| GBP/AUD Daily Chart |
Onto the GBP/AUD, this pair has been trending up and
is currently trading at 1.8724 at the time of writing this article. This pair
made a high of 1.8768. The fib levels are for the 23.6% at 1.6319 and the 38.2%
fib level at 1.6774 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 1.7130 and at
the 61.8% fib level at 1.7502. We do see the data out of the UK has mixed. The
employment data from the UK did support the upside for Cable. We did see that
it was able to bounce back rather quickly. The reports from Australia that we
receive at 00:30 GMT today were good. We did see some temporary upside in the
Aussie. It was not enough to be sustained.
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| GBP/AUD 30 Minute Chart |
Onto the 30 minute chart, we see that it has been
trading in sideways manner since 17 January. I do note the pound can still
continue its ascent. It is appears still bullish from the data coming out of
the UK. We are still bullish on Cable at this point for the short and medium
term.
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| USD/JPY Daily Chart |
Onto the USD/JPY, this pair has been trading
sideways from the high of 105.41 to the low of 103.98 and is currently trading
at 104.49 at the time of writing this article. This pair made a high of 105.41
on the daily chart. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 96.48 and the 38.2% fib
level at 98.15 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 99.49 and at the 61.8%
fib level at 100.96.
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| USD/JPY 30 Minute Chart |
Onto the 30 minute chart, it is trending upward. We
do see the responsive native from the BOJ to an accommodative stance. This is
in large due the monetary policies put forth by the BOJ. They have not changed
their stance for more stimulus. We are neutral, I am cautious at this point
because one trade in one direction at a steep angle are prone to reversals. I
am cautious. I would like see a larger retracement to confirm the uptrend. The
data out of US is questionable. It has been mixed. You have the BOJ doing the
exact same type monetary policies leave more questions than answers. The data
is mixed. I would like to better manufacturing and exports out of the US. When
the imports are better than exports, we need to ask questions about the data to
justify the trade possibility.
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| NZD/CAD Daily Chart |
Onto the NZD/CAD, this pair has been trending up and
is currently trading at 0.9214. This pair made a high of 0.9214. The fib levels
are for the 23.6% at 0.8275 and the 38.2% fib level at 0.8457 on the daily
chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 0.8601 and at the 61.8% fib level at 0.8747.
We do note the upside is due to the poor data out of Canada. Also, the interest
rate decision aided this pair upward ascent. Any movement to the downside does
appear to be very shallow. There is the possibility this could retracement in
the near future.
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| NZD/CAD 30 Minute Chart |
Onto the 30 minute chart, we
do see that it moved upward. This is primarily due to the interest rate
decision from the Bank of Canada. The data from Canada has been very soft of
late. We can see response from traders and the price is telling that the data
of out of Canada is still weak. We are seeing that is some indication of
inflation to starting to peer out. This
is why you are seeing the Kiwi go higher and interest rate hikes from the RBNZ.
We are bullish from the evidence we do see for the short term. I am cautiously
bullish at this point the upward movement is kind of steep. I do expect in the
near future a retracement to the downside. I would like to wait and buy the
pair as lower price to confirm the overall bullish trend we have seen for some
time.
The markets relatively overvalued.
Some of the data is spotty at best. We still need to be cautious at this point
go all out with looking at things carefully and questioning whether the
fundamental do match the reality of what is happening and not grow overconfident. The best is measure the data
with the charts. We do see pairs going up with the data is mixed and leaves
more questions than answers. This is why I am more realistic and want more
verification to prove the technical and fundamentals match the reality. We need
some more proof to justify good trades over hype. Have a great day and will put
another later on.
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