Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 18 December 2013

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 18 December 2013. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the GBP/CAD, AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD currency pairs, gold and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

GBPCAD Daily Chart

Onto the GPB/CAD, this pair has opened at 1.7421 on a daily chart and has made the low of 1.7389. It is currently trading at 1.7423. The Claimant Count Change came in -35.7k versus -42.8k from the previous month. It appears the unemployment is getting better in the UK. Also, there was not any change to hike or cut by the Bank of England with all 9 voting in lock step to not hike nor were they inclined to cut either. The data of the UK is good. This pair has moved after the good data. It is stuck in trading between 1.7183 and 1.7540. It had been trending up and appears that it is still trending up for the meantime. This will pair will have to retrace to the 1.6974 level of support to continue on its uptrend. This is on a daily chart. It looks bullish and will remain this way for the time being. The markets are being quiet due to Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at 19:00 GMT today. I am not expecting a lot of movement and it appears that markets are remaining quiet until then.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/NZD, this pair has been going downward for a long time since March 2013. It is currently trading at 1.0794 on a daily chart. It opened at the high of 1.0799. This pair is not a fast moving pair. It moves very slowly. It will have to bottom at some point soon. This pair has been oversold for some time. I do expect a bounce for the simple being oversold. The level to break above to become bullish is at 1.1048 resistant level. We have blue candle and this pair will have to start bottoming out and going sideways to break out of the downward trend. It appears for the time meaning that remain bearish for the time being.

GBP/NZD Daily Chart

Onto the GBP/NZD, this pair has been trending sideways and is currently trading at 1.9860 on a daily chart. It opened at 1.9830. It has been a battle between the Kiwi and the UK because the data between the two. This pair has been trading in the sideways range on the daily chart for good portion of the year since March. The bottom of the range is at 1.8866, and top of the range is at 2.0218. This pair will have break out of its range soon either to the downside or to the upside. It has been trading in this fashion for some time. I remain neutral at this time until it can break out of the range. 

Onto gold, at the moment, it does appear that is moved up about $2.70 and is currently trading at $1234.00. It is still in downward trend. It has been trading very quietly. I do expect that it will continue to trade very quiet until we get word of the taper and when the Federal Reserve will say when they will taper. I don’t expect that it happen this month because it is too close to the end of the year. I do expect that first quart of 2014 is more likely than anything. It will have break 1260 level to become bullish. I believe it will have bottom at some point. It has been trading sideways. The taper will not be fast one. A fast aggressive taper will crash the markets. The Federal Reserve knows that slow and gradual taper is better choice overall. The markets can price it in better and the markets do not like uncertainty nor do they like surprises. At moment, it looks bearish short term and medium term for the time being.

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $97.89 a barrel. It made a high at $98.19 a barrel. It is slowing making its way upward. I have not changed my overall view of oil going higher at this point. It had been trending downwards for a while. I do not expect that it will stay there for much longer. I am not expecting much of reaction from the Federal Reserve’s decision today at 19:00 GMT because the oil markets are very independent and can change on a dime. I remain longer term bullish on oil.

We should see today if we get any movement towards risk themes today on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The markets are going to trade quietly and not expecting a lot of movement until after the rate decision has been announced. The reaction will probably last day or two from it. This is what I am expecting nor am I am expecting a December taper being so close to the end of the year. Markets do not like aggressive surprises nor unpredictability. Take care and good luck trading today.  I will put out a daily report tomorrow. We will see what happens in the markets tomorrow.

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