Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 10 January 2014

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 10 January 2014. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD currency pairs, gold, silver and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/USD, this pair has gone up after the poor data from the NFP report and is currently trading at 0.8928. This pair made a high of 0.8945. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.9047 and 38.2% fib level at 0.9180 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 0.9292 and at 61.8% fib level at 0.9403.  We can see that poor data coming out of the US did make impact on the Aussie. It has been at exceptionally oversold levels for a while. This does make perfect for a bounce. It did right after the release of the NFP report. I do expect this pair will surprise many people that expected the dollar to strengthen.

 ADP report from Wednesday is not the clearest indicator for measuring unemployment. The reason is very simple. ADP is a private company not anyway affiliated with the government. The US Department of Labor is where a majority of the reports do come from regarding employment. Although sometimes to do lineup, the ADP report should not be used as a main measure of unemployment. Only the reports coming out of the US Department of Labor will give the real picture. The clearest picture is the unemployment claims and continuing unemployment claims for reporting the unemployment picture. Clearly, we see that picture for December is low. Generally, you would have a good picture for December because seasonally jobs. The snapshot for December indicates we did not get the expect job growth and had missed the mark completely. As we do see that the Aussie can and will strengthen, I am starting to turn bullish at this point. This is the way it looks for now.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Onto the NZD/USD, this pair has been trending upward of late and is currently trading at 0.8264. This pair made a high of 0.8268. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.7884 and 38.2% fib level at 0.8008 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 0.8109 and at 61.8% fib level at 0.8214. We do see that Kiwi is strengthening much like the Aussie. We know the Kiwi is very resilient. I do expect that as the Kiwi economy continues to grow that we will see the pick-up in strength. The demand for soft commodities will continue to grow. The RBNZ has made known as we have stated on many occasion that they will in fact hike interest rates. This will allow the hot money to flow in. We remain firmly bullish on the Kiwi.

 

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Onto the USD/CAD, this pair has been trending upward the last 5 days and is currently trading at 1.0935. This pair made a high of 1.0936. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 1.0304 and 38.2% fib level at 1.0414 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 1.0498 and at 61.8% fib level at 1.0589. We did see an uptick in the unemployment rate in Canada and the Net change and participation rates were disappointing. This is why you did the dollar strengthened on this pair. Also, we did see that the US dollar strengthen as a risk averse move for this pair. This is not a big surprise here. As long as the Canada data is on the soft side, you will not get any big moves to the downside. I do expect this pair will continue to go up as long as we continue see bad data coming out of Canada. I am still bullish at this point.

 

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, it is up about $12.50, which about +0.99%. It is currently trading at $1241.30. Gold is trekking up especially after the dismal NPF results and break downward trend that it has been in for a while. The fib levels on the daily chart are $1252.02 at the 23.6, $1268.13 at the 38.2% fib level, $1292.50 at the 50% level, at $1331.23 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart. We do see a 6.9% unemployment figure report. But, we do have be bit skeptical with the number the unemployment claims and continuing unemployment claims were a bit higher. This does lend credence in the uptick in gold today. I do expect that over the long haul that we could see higher prices in gold longer term.  On the short and medium is harder to gauge. We do see the uptick in gold. We remain bullish longer term on gold.

Silver Daily Chart

Onto silver, it is currently trading at $20.05 and is up by 36 cents. It is down by 1.85%. The key fib levels for silver at 50.0% at $20.94 and $21.45 at the 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.   Even though it is stuck in the consolidation pattern, we still hold firmly that this will go parabolic at some point. Long periods of consolidation do lead up to price spikes at some point down the road. Longer term, we remain committed to being bullish at this point.

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $92.61 a barrel and is up 0.96 cents. It is up by 0.36%. The fib levels for oil at 50.0% market are $97.96 per barrel and $99.44 at the 61.8 fib level on the daily chart. I am slight bit more cautious with oil because of the wide price swings that we saw since last Friday. I am still bullish longer term. It is still hard to say if we are going down for the short and medium term. However, I do believe that higher prices will happen over the longer term. I am cautious bullish at this point.

The overall market sentiment is cautious today with US data not living up to expectations. We will get mixed overall views with regard to it. The ADP report does line up to the reporting unemployment occasionally. This should not be set stone that it is the only way to gauge the truest picture economically with regard to jobs. The prevalent  themes for today was the US data and how did not live up to the expectations. The data out of the US Department of Labor did give picture that the economy for the month of December did seem by estimates to be all that robust. But, the months prior to December you probably gotten good reports. This December unemployment data had failed to meet the expectations set forth. This should remind people that you have to wait until the data is released. Never count your chickens before they hatch. I heard this saying from my grandmother a long time ago.  

The overall picture still needs to be scrutinized. The picture is not great by past standards of measuring unemployment like was done during President Ronald Reagan's time in office. The overall picture is mixed. One or quarters will not the tell the whole story for the past five years of anemic growth. This shows we need to curve our expectations and be a realistic as possible. 

The overall picture is anemic not a real robust nature. Anything above 5% is real growth that is not glossed over with buzz words and using flowery language paint the picture anemic growth as real growth. The US economy is really not there yet. It still has a long way to go. This is why I am very pragmatic and a realist. The overall growth economically has to come from manufacturing and better trade balance numbers to gauge the real economic picture.

Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the local charities especially be donating my profits to help out the food banks and local charities that work with needy families. This means if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. I will put out another report on Sunday. Have a great day and good luck trading for the rest of today.

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