Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 6 January 2014

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 30 December 2013. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the NZD/CAD, AUD/NZD,EUR/JPY currency pairs, gold and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

NZD/CAD Daily  Chart

Onto the NZD/CAD, this pair has been trending upward and is currently trading at 0.8827. This pair made a high of 0.8827. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.8146 and 38.2% fib level at 0.8206 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 0.8392 and at 61.8% fib level at 0.8495. This pair has not any problems staying higher. It appears at the moment that it may just to it. It is going to test 0.8859 high that it made back in November. We do have the economic reports for New Zealand at 21:45 GMT today. This will give a clear picture whether there is still demand for soft commodities. Here is the report coming out for New Zealand.

21:45		NZD	Trade Balance (MoM) (Nov)			$-26M	$183M
21:45		NZD	Exports (Nov)			$4.39B	$4.50B
21:45		NZD	Imports (Nov)			$4.4B	$4.3B
21:45		NZD	Trade Balance (YoY) (Nov)			$-0.45B	$-1.00B

I do believe there the demand for soft commodities will up in the report and say that there is a need for them. Also, I believe reports will highlight the demand and state that it is high. This will probably help when the RBNZ looks and sees the demand is there. It will help when the interest rate hike take place. I do expect that more hot money will flow into New Zealand after the interest rate hikes. I am still bullish on the Kiwi.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/NZD, this pair has been trending down and is currently trading at 1.0807. This pair made a high of 1.0845. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 1.1053 and 38.2% fib level at 1.1262 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 1.1429 and at 61.8% fib level at 1.1590. This pair may still continue downward for a little bit longer. I do expect when interest rates are raised by the RBNZ that we could see this pair trend lower for bit longer than expect. I am reminded that this pair has often trade in cycle of reaching a point of meeting historical low. It will hit here very shortly. There is more of a likely the RBNZ will hike interest rates than RBA. Will at this point. Also, there is the spectre of China hanging over the Aussie. China is still Australia’s largest trading partner. I am cautious at this point and not ready to call any bottom this pair. I am neutral at this point in time.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

Onto the EUR/JPY, this pair has been trending downward the last couple of days and is currently trading at 142.39. This pair made a high of 142.62. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 129.84 and 38.2% fib level at 132.87 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 135.35 and at 61.8% fib level at 137.79.  This pair had been in a rising wedge during the month of December. I stated a little while ago that I did expect that it would. I am still waiting to see if this does play out at the moment and waiting for a bit more confirmation. We did get data that was mixed and was not as good as the previous month. I do expect this pair will trek lower because of the mix data that we received. I am bearish on this pair at the moment.

 

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, it is up about $2.50, which about +0.23%. It is currently trading at $1241.30. Gold is trying trek up and break downward trend that it has been in for a while. The fib levels on the daily chart are $1252.02 at the 23.6, $1268.13 at the 38.2% fib level, $1292.50 at the 50% level, at $1331.23 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.   At the moment, it does appear that gold is going higher. I do expect that will go higher longer term. It does not appear to be going down. For a good portion of 2013, it had been correcting. We do see this in all markets where a financial instrument does correct in time. I don’t expect to this continue on a steep decline like we have seen. I do expect that will bounce back. I am cautiously bullish at this time.

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $94.12 a barrel and is up a bit. It is up by 0.17%. The key fib levels for oil at 50.0% at $100.62 and 102.79 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.  It has broken pass the key support areas It does appear that it may try to find a bottom. I don’t expect that this recent downturn that we have seen to last long term. I expect higher oil prices longer term.

The markets do seem to recap some of the losses on Friday that we have seen. We do have heavy event risk with BOE, EBC and the NFP this week. A lot of the pair have not really retrace to a degree to confirming that the bullish trends that we see remain intact. I would like to see a bit more follow thru rather the straight one way trade without any real corrections that we have seen of late.  There is plenty of demand for risk appetite at the moment.  This week’s events will provide for the measure of risk taking that we are seeing at the moment.  There has to be the data to support it, but we really not seeing it. Most of the data has been mixed at best. We have measure our opportunities and makes the data matches the technicals. Technicals along do not tell the whole story alone. We need to see some consistency for it to match the technical. We just not really see it. It doesn’t limit the opportunities for trades, but raise what are these assets really worth and how long to they stay in the upward flux that we do see. These kinds risk themes do run in cycles and they have to run their course.  The most important we have to see is follow thru for these risk trends to continue.

I will be doing report tomorrow highlighting the direction of precious metals. You don't want to miss this one if you are invested into precious metals. Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the local charities especially be donating my profits to help out the food banks and local charities that work with needy families. This means if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. I will put out another report on tomorrow. Have a great day and good luck trading for the rest of today.

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