Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 21 January 2014

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 21 January 2014. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD currency pairs, gold, silver and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Onto the USD/JPY, this pair has been trading sideways from the high of 105.41 to the low of 103.85 and is currently trading at 104.27. This pair made a high of 105.41 on the daily chart. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 96.48 and the 38.2% fib level at 98.15 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 99.49 and at the 61.8% fib level at 100.96. The event for this pair is the interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan.  I don’t expect any change out of the Bank of Japan.

Here are the events for Japan today:

03:00		JPY	BoJ Interest Rate Decision				0.1%
03:00		JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
04:30		JPY	All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Nov)			0.4%	-0.2%
05:00		JPY	Leading Economic Index (Nov)				109.8
05:00		JPY	Coincident Index (Nov)				110.4
n/a		JPY	BoJ Press Conference

USD/JPY 30 Minute Chart

Onto the 30 minute chart, it is trending sideways. As you can see, it is in anticipation of the interest decision from the Bank of Japan. We will see more movement. We do know that Japan is big buyer of US Treasuries. We did get the data earlier stating the bond auction for 3 month US treasuries and 6 month note for US treasuries were ok, but not great. We could see a bit of downside. I believe that pullback in the pair is more than likely given that it has been on uptrend. I am staying neutral at this point.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/USD, this pair has been a bit flat and is currently trading at 0.8807. This pair made a high of 0.8821. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.9047 and the 38.2% fib level at 0.9180 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 0.9292 and at the 61.8% fib level at 0.9403. The Aussie did rally bit on Sunday and did not hold. This pair has been trading sideways and appears to be consolidating for the time being. We do not have a clear direction on the pair.

AUD/USD 30 Minute Chart

Onto the 30 minute chart, we see that it has been trading in sideways manner. It looks to be unsure of continuation. We need to see some spark or catalyst to give things to move in one direction or the other.  We could see bit of upside. This pair does appear to want to bottom out. I am neutral at this point.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Onto the USD/CAD, this pair has been trending up and is currently trading at 1.0971. This pair made a high of 1.1015. The fib levels are for the 23.6% at 1.0239 and the 38.2% fib level at 1.0387 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 1.0517 and at the 61.8% fib level at 1.0635. This pair has been trending up. We did some data out of Canada today that sent the pair a little lower. We can expect some retracement for this pair to continue higher. Although, it will be dependent on the data coming out of the US.

USD/CAD 30 Minute Chart

Onto the 30 minute chart, we do note that is some consolidation going on. We do see evidence of this. We could consolidate bit more to hold these gains. We will hold bullish view for the short and medium term.

 

We are seeing the markets not really approving of the data coming out of the US. There are mixed signals being sent by the Fed. We have pairs like USD/JPY act like more of risk based assets. It is unusually to see a safe haven like the US Dollar act like a risk asset. Our expectation should match the reality. This why I am being very cautious and realistic. I have been trading a while and very concerned when I see a safe haven asset behave like a risk based asset. The forecasted growth is not something that I would expect from developed nation recovering. We need to see number like an increase in manufacturing, exports and positive trade balance numbers to say there is a recovery taking place. We see do more imports coming in. It is not there.  Good luck trading out there and put out another report later on.

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