Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 15 January 2014

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 15 January 2014. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the AUD/CAD, NZD/JPY,and  GBP/AUD currency pairs in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

AUD/CAD Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/CAD, this pair has down to 0.9735 and is currently trading at 0.9752. This pair made a high of 0.9818. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.9372 and the 38.2% fib level at 0.9501 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 0.9606 and at the 61.8% fib level at 0.9709. This pair has gone down bit. I do expect that will hit the 61.8 fib level soon. It may get to the 50.0% fib level soon. We do have the Australian employment report on tap on Thursday, 16 January at 00:30 GMT. This should give us a bit more of clue as to what is happening with employment picture. If the data is not good, we could very well see a continuation of the downtrend.

AUD/CAD 30 minute Chart

Onto the 30 minute chart, it is trending down and appears that downtrend pretty much intact at the moment. It does look like that could test the lows back on January 10.I suspect it that will test the low. I am bearish at the moment for the short term.

NZD/JPY Daily Chart

Onto the NZD/JPY, this pair continues to trend up and is currently trading at 87.20. This pair made a high of 87.35. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 77.48 and 38.2% fib level at 79.29 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 80.91 and at 61.8% fib level at 82.38. We do see that the pair has remain in large part bullish despite the bad news of the last three days. Abe economic policies are in large part due to its continuing trend northward. This pair does appear to be bullish, we could have a slight retracement. There is very little or hard no dips at the moment on the daily time frame.

 

NZD/JPY 30 Minute Chart

On the 30 minute time frame, the bands do appear to be still point north at the moment. It does not appear that any major dip. The dips to be appear to be more shallow. This could change in the future. For now, it appears to still bullish Here is the data on tap at 23:50 GMT for Japan:

23:50		JPY	Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (Dec)	1		0.3%	0.1%
23:50		JPY	Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (Dec)	1		2.6%	2.7%
23:50		JPY	Machinery Orders (MoM) (Nov)	1		1.2%	0.6%
23:50		JPY	Machinery Orders (YoY) (Nov)	2		11.7%	17.8%
23:50		JPY	Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Nov)	2		0.8%	-0.7%

If the data is not great or bad, you may see a continuation of this bullish trend. I am being cautious and go with bullish view at the moment.

 

GBP/AUD Daily Chart

Onto the GBP/AUD, this pair has been trending up and is currently trading at 1.8342. This pair made a high of 1.8450. The fib levels are for the 23.6% at 1.6319 and the 38.2% fib level at 1.6774 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 1.7130 and at the 61.8% fib level at 1.7502. This pair has made some small moves to the downside. It appears that it might try to resume its upside for the short term. It has been bullish for the most part. The only that do see it on the horizon. It is the UK bond auction for the 30 year not on tap for Thursday, 16 January. If there is evidence that there are less bonds being sold to investors. This could show that investors are not that confident in the UK economy. The bonds are the UK government sells to investors. If not a lot of investors are not buying the bonds, it be problematic. Investors are less likely to invest because of low yields on the ROI. This could minimally impact the currency.

 

GBP/AUD 30 Minute Chart

Onto the 30 minute chart, we see the 30 minute chart see a bit downside because the Bollinger bands are indicating more downside. I don’t see any potential upside at this point and things are more to the downside right now. I am bearish at this point.

We do notice that the markets are not overtly wanting to take risks at this point and time. They tend to be bearish. We do see that this theme over the last few days is continuing to play itself out. We are not really seeing  the extreme bullishness there. Investors and traders do seem to be a bit more cautious. We can see this overall.  We are seeing do that the Yen crosses are moving to the downside. We are not siding with the US dollar at this time and have to take a more objective stance at this time. We maintaining a more realistic view and being very pragmatic. We do see the dollar going the same direction like the S & P. This is a cause for concern. When a safe haven like US dollar is behaving like a risk asset than a safe haven, we have to be a bit more cautious. We see that if it continues to go the same direction that it will follow in the same direction in the future. At this time we need to be cautious and see how this particular theme plays itself out. What is most concerning is the overvaluation of risk assets. We do see that this trend could go on a little bit longer, but not forever. A real safe haven goes in the opposite direction versus risk trends that we are seeing that it is not behaving that way. Lastly, it is important to pay attention to those particular themes being played out.

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