Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 2 January 2014

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 2 January 2014. Happy New Year to everyone. I hope that everyone is enjoying the new year. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the EUR /JPY, CAD/CHF, GBP/NZD currency pairs, gold and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

Onto the EUR/JPY, this pair had made it as a high to 144.22 the daily chart. It is currently trading at 143.36. This pair has been trending upward since November and been in a rising wedge pattern. Today, it looks like the pattern of rising up may break. There are reports coming out of the EU will have to engage the same policies like the US and do it much more aggressively. I do expect that we could see this go to the downside. It does not appear that it can hold the momentum it had. Here are the fib levels on the daily chart.  The fib levels at 23.6% level are 129.77 and 132.82. at 38.2 fib level. At 50.0 % fib level is 135.25. At 61.8 fib level is 137.68.I am bearish for now.

 

CAD/CHF Daily Chart

Onto the CAD/CHF, this pair had made it as a high to 0.8492 the daily chart. It is currently trading at 0.8492. It does appear that we going to break the down trend that we have seen since May 2013.I do expect the fib level and head to the upside. This is my bias as the moment. The first fib level I am expect it to hit is the 23.6 and the 38.2 fib levels are the most likely candidate for this pair to touch. The fib levels at 23.6% level are 0.8552 and 0.8740 at 38.2 fib level. At 50.0 % fib level is 0.8891. At 61.8 fib level is 0.9037. It looks slightly bullish on this pair for now.

 

GBP/NZD Daily Chart

Onto the GBP/NZD, this pair has been trending up and is still in a rising wedge pattern. It is currently trading at 2.0105. It made a high of 2.0313. This pair has been trading to the upside since 21 October 2013. I do expect this pair to retrace and hit 61.8 fib level at 1.9558. It could go lower. It does appear will break the rising wedge pattern to head lower. The key fib level for 23.6% are 1.8874 and at 38.2% fib level is 1.9139. At the 50.0% fib level, it is 1.9371 and at the 61.8% fib level 1.9587. The Markit Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations and came in 57.3 versus 58.1 from the previous month. The expected number is 58.0. The numbers tomorrow come in mixed or bad. This pair could still trend lower.  Here are the reports that are coming out tomorrow.  . We have Consumer Credit on Friday, January 3rd at 9:30 GMT. The other reports we have for the UK are mortgage approvals at 9:30 GMT along with Net lending to individuals and PMI construction. I do expect that this pair will start to trend lower. I am bearish on this pair at the moment.

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, it move to the upside and it is up $23.00. This is about 1.90% for today. It is currently trading at $1225.70. It appears for now it going to the upside for now. It may break all of this downward pressure on it. We would like to see if more countries continue to buy US treasury debt at the next bond auctions. I am cautiously bullish on gold.

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $96.72 a barrel and took a wack to the downside. It is down by 1.74%. The support level on the daily chart is at 95.47.  This took me by surprise and have been bullish on oil. The key fib levels for oil at 50.0% at $100.50 and 102.79 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart. It is happening at the time of writing this article.  I do not expect it to stay down permanently. I do expect this will hit the support and probably test it. I am going to wait and see if we head lower or bounce back to the upside. It is neutral at the moment.

 

I do expect that the market that been quiet for a good part of this week and last week to end on Friday. I do expect this new year will see some different trends than we saw in 2013. I do expect there will be probably be more risk aversion with regard to the taper that is coming. The markets have not priced it in yet. Most of the pairs, with the exception of the commodity have been overbought. We have seen overselling of the Yen. It appears that the Bank of Japan is very accommodative to want to see a lower Yen in value. I do expect that if risk trends to play out we need to see some corrections for certain pairs to continue higher. Also, we could see and hear more about the problem coming out of China and with the banking scandals taking place over there. It could very well spill over into the market here. We need to pay attention this over the coming year to see how it will affect the FX market, gold and oil markets. We need to see if the continuing trends of 2013 continue up or reverse themselves.  I am still slightly more cautious at this point. Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the local charities especially be donating my profits to help out the food banks and local charities that work with needy families. This means if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. I will put out another report on tomorrow. Have a great day and good luck trading for the rest of today.

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