Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 9 January 2014

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 9 January 2014. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the AUD/CHF, NZD/CAD, USD/CAD currency pairs, gold, silver and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

AUD/CHF Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/CHF, this pair has been going nowhere and is currently trading at 0.8076. This pair made a high of 0.8125. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.8219 and 38.2% fib level at 0.8469 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 0.8672 and at 61.8% fib level at 0.8876.  This pair is muttering around and really going nowhere. It is appears that we do not a clear and definite direction either way. The data we have on tap is from China start 2:00 GMT.

02:00		CNY	Trade Balance (Dec)			31.150B	33.801B
02:00		CNY	Exports (YoY) (Dec)			4.9%	12.7%
02:00		CNY	Imports (YoY) (Dec)			5.3%	5.3%
n/a		CNY	M2 Money Supply (YoY) (Dec)			13.8%	14.2%
n/a		CNY	New Loans (Dec)			¥600.0B	¥624.6B

The reason we do look at the Chinese data is because of Australia is China’s largest trading partner. We need to pay attention to China because the financial system could spill over in the markets in the west. If China takes nasty fall, it will send shockwaves through-out the financial system in the west. We will wait and see how this plays out. I am bit more cautious knowing this at this point. If I do take any position on the Aussie, they will be small positions. I am more neutral at this point.

NZD/CAD Daily Chart

Onto the NZD/CAD, this pair has been trending upward of late and is currently trading at 0.8943. This pair made a high of 0.8977. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.8185 and 38.2% fib level at 0.8335 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 0.8459 and at 61.8% fib level at 0.8582.  This pair has been trending upward and economic reports out of New Zealand do in fact the support the upswing in the New Zealand dollar. The RBNZ has taken more of a hawkish tone and has made it known that it does intend to raise interest rates this year.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Onto the USD/CAD, this pair has been trending upward the last 4 days and is currently trading at 1.0850. This pair made a high of 1.0869. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 1.0304 and 38.2% fib level at 1.0414 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 1.0498 and at 61.8% fib level at 1.0589. We have on tap tomorrow the NFP and Canadian Employment reports.

        The recent economic data out of Canada do give not a favorable outlook for the Canadian dollar. The monetary policy out of BOC has been very neutral. We do expect that the NPF tomorrow to follow suit much like APD report. I will be looking more at the unemployment claims to give me a truer picture of the situation overall. NFP is the most volatile trading on the first of the month. We should hold back our expectation until after the data is released. With two employment report being release at the same time, it does make it bit hard to place trade until 30 minutes after the data is release to gauge market sentiment. I am still cautious bullish at this point. We do not appear to be overly bought at this point.  This is still continuing its upward projection.

 

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, it is up about $2.70, which about +0.23%. It is currently trading at $1228.30. Gold is trying trek up and break downward trend that it has been in for a while. The fib levels on the daily chart are $1225.82 at the 23.6, $1250.82 at the 38.2% fib level, $1272.54 at the 50% level, at $1333.83 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart. Gold has been trading down. It may continue the downtrend for a big longer, but it will not stay down indefinitely. I do not see any more nasty sharp downturns like we had last year. Also, it could trade sideways for the time being and consolidate. This is more of the situation that I do expect is more sideways rather one way trade straight to the downside.

Silver Daily Chart

Onto silver, it is currently trading at $19.62 and is up by 8 cents It is up by +0.45%. The key fib levels for oil at 50.0% at $20.94 and $21.45 at the 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.  The fib levels have not really change all that much. We are still consolidating for a bit. I do expect that this consolidation that it has been seeing to end soon. I believe this could very well go parabolic given that it has been consolidating for a great while. Short is I am neutral. However, I am more bullish longer term. I just don’t see this staying in this pattern permanently. 

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $91.39 a barrel and is down a lot. It is down by -0.96%. The fib levels for oil at 50.0% market are $97.96 per barrel and $99.44 at the 61.8 fib level on the daily chart. We did go past the $92.00. I am neutral on oil and setting to the sidelines. I need to see more of a bottoming at this point. It appears right now that it does not appear to be bottoming. We could still see more down side for oil. I would like it a bit of bounce to confirm that it is not just one way trade in one specified direction. I am very neutral at this point until we do find a solid bottom for oil.

The overall market seems be more dollar bullishness. We can see this. Some of the data does support this at this point. Monetary policy does support taper expectations for the coming year. We are not seeing a lot of good data out the commodity block currency with exception of New Zealand. We may get spurts here and there. Nothing is supporting that spark or catalyst for the commodity block just yet. This may change.

        I don’t expect see an immediate change overnight. Things do tend to run in cycles. We may be seeing still a bear market rally much like we saw in the 1930s where you had several rallies with no real sign of a full blown recovery. Tommorow is NFP. I want to see after the report is release where things really do stand. I want to see if there is any slight minor pullbacks to support any kind of buying opportunities. We are seeing some minor pullbacks. I do expect that after the run up in risk base assets that we could see bit more risk aversion. We do see some of the risk assets are overvalued. This has more to do with monetary policy of the Fed and the other central banks. I am gauging sentiment the moment and trying gauge the monetary policy to help guide my trade set ups at the moment. I still need to see that consistent follow through to be convinced that these trends are truly bullish trends rather one way trade without any follow through.

Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the local charities especially be donating my profits to help out the food banks and local charities that work with needy families. This means if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. I will put out another report on tomorrow. Have a great day and good luck trading for the rest of today.

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