Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 8 January 2014

I am sorry I didn’t get report earlier because I am under the weather with a really bad cold. Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 8 January 2014. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the AUD/CAD, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY currency pairs, gold, silver and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

AUD/CAD Daily  Chart

Onto the AUD/CAD, this pair has been given a bit of a boost and is currently trading at 0.9641. This pair made a high of 0.9641. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.9375 and 38.2% fib level at 0.9501 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 0.9607 and at the 61.8% fib level at 0.9708.  Of late, we have seen this pair rise bit. It looks like it is going to retest around 1.0046. I do expect that it will hit there. The data of Canada has been very poor. I was hoping for bit better news out of Canada. It has not been the case yet. We did receive good data to support Australia rising in value.  This pair is not going to stay down. Unlike its AUD/USD counterpart, it is more bullish. There is not the expectation of raising rates just yet. I do expect that a lot the easing in monetary policy stop eventually. We could very well see the Aussie retrieve its title being a star performing currency eventually in the future. It is still too early to tell. I am very firmly bullish on this pair for the short and medium term.

GBP/NZD Daily Chart

Onto the GPB/NZD, this pair has been trending down and is currently trading at 1.9802. This pair made a high of 1.9804. The fib levels are for the 23.6% at 1.8889 and the 38.2% fib level at 1.9156 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 1.9377 and at the 61.8% fib level at 1.9591.  We have the interest rate decision from the BOE on tap on Thursday, 9 January at 12:00 GMT. I am looking monetary policy to drive direction of the trend. This is what give rise or fall in the currency value. Many people are looking for BOE to hike rate this year. I am not because the data does not support rate hike. There are expectations of rate hike by BOE. It is unlikely to happen this year. It is more likely that the RBNZ will hike rates and the data for New Zealand does support it the expectation of raising interest rates. I am expecting this will hit the 61.8 soon and is fairly close doing so. It is more likely that as long as the data supports New Zealand that it will continue to be bullish for  the New Zealand economy longer term. I am slightly bearish on this pair for now.

CAD/JPY Daily Chart

Onto the CAD/JPY, this pair has been trending downward the last couple of days and is currently trading at 97.10. This pair made a high of 97.26. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 93.48 and 38.2% fib level at 94.55 on the daily chart. At the 50.0% fib level is 95.46 and at the 61.8% fib level is 96.29.  We did get a strong rise in risk aversion in the Yen cross. The soft data out of Canada helped to strengthen the Yen. The Nikkei 225 fell. We know when the Nikkei falls that Yen rises in value. We saw this across the board with all the Yen pairs where the Yen took off. I do expect as along as the Lonnie remains very soft as it has that we continue to see other currencies rise against it. I am very bearish and disappointed with the Lonnie.

 

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, it is up about $2.50, which about +0.23%. It is currently trading at $1225.30. Gold is trying trek up and break downward trend that it has been in for a while. The fib levels on the daily chart are $1252.02 at the 23.6, $1268.13 at the 38.2% fib level, $1292.50 at the 50% level, at $1331.23 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.   At the moment, it does appear that gold is going higher. I do expect that will go higher longer term. It does not appear to be going down. For a good portion of 2013, it had been correcting. We do see this in all markets where a financial instrument does correct in time. I don’t expect to this continue on a steep decline like we have seen. I do expect that will bounce back. I am cautiously bullish at this time.

Silver Daily Chart

Onto silver, it is currently trading at $19.65 and is down by 10 cents. It is down by -0.72%. The key fib levels for oil at the 50.0%  fib level is $20.94 and $21.45 at the 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.  This has been consolidating for a long period of time. I do expect after silver finishes consolidating that we could very well see this go parabolic much more so than gold because of the consolidating that been taking place for a while. This is my first reporting on silver for this report and will be a part of the trading reports that we will put out. I am neutral for now until we can break this consolidating pattern that we are seeing.

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $94.01 a barrel and is up a bit. It is up by 0.36%. The fib levels for oil at  the 50.0% fib level os $97.96 per barrel and $99.44 at the 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.  It does appear that could trade sideways for a while especially after the price spike  that we saw to the downside. I am still very cautious at this point until I can see prove of it consolidating and leaves me to remain neutral for right now short and medium term.

We are starting to see some of the effects of the taper being priced in. There is some risk aversion taking place. We do see evidence of it from the Yen and Nikkei 225 to spill over to other markets around the globe. There is sort of expectation that some of these risk will continue. I do expect to see that there will be more of meaningful correction longer term. The current market conditions with the major indexes are overbought technically. I do expect that we could see a bit more than the minor corrections that we have seen since Friday. We do have event risk on tap with the EBC, the BOE and NFP. This will shape the markets for this month more than likely. It is unlikely that EBC will cut rates even further. There is still speculation with the BOE, but the data has to support that expectations. We just do not have yet because of the data coming out of the UK has been awful. I do expect that we could see further rises out of the US dollar index. If we were to get a generally risk aversion, you would definitely see the flight from risk based assets to the safe havens. Also, we would need to see better numbers like manufacturing PMI and PPI to support it. We just do not have it. Countries like New Zealand are more of the soft commodities, which you would see more of demand for. Also, we need to see how it all plays after the major events this week to gauge the risk appetite. Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the local charities especially be donating my profits to help out the food banks and local charities that work with needy families. This means, for example, if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. I will put out another report on tomorrow. Have a great day and good luck trading for the rest of today.

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