Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 3 January 2014

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 3 January 2014. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the AUD /USD, CAD/CHF, GBP/AUD currency pairs, gold and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/USD, this pair had made it as a high to 0.9003 the daily chart. It is currently trading at 0.8989. It appears that it has gotten a boost today and is trading in a sideways channel. This could be mostly consolidating and forming a bottom. The Aussie for the most part has been oversold for a while. I don’t expect this will continue to stay oversold. I do expect that it have to those fib levels rather being oversold for a long time. This pair has been trending down since October. The fib levels at the 23.6% level are 0.9081 and 0.9243 at the 38.2 fib level. At the 50.0 % fib level is 0.9375. At the 61.8 fib level is 0.9504. I am slightly bullish for now.

 

CAD/CHF Daily Chart

Onto the CAD/CHF, this pair had made it as a high to 0.8515 the daily chart. It is currently trading at 0.8505.  This pair we said yesterday that we expect to hit the 23.6 fib level. I still hold that bias. If it can break the downtrend, I do expect this downtrend will end soon.  I believe this downtrend is just temporary. I do expect that once we get the break above the 23.6 fib level and hit the 38.2, as well as, stay above it that the downtrend will be over. The fib levels at 23.6% level are 0.8563 and 0.8740 at the 38.2 fib level. At the 50.0 % fib level is 0.8898. At the 61.8 fib level is 0.9053. I am still slightly bullish for the time being.

 

GBP/AUD Daily Chart

Onto the GBP/AUD, this pair has been trending up and is still in a rising wedge pattern. It is currently trading at 1.8249. It made a high of 1.8328.  This pair is falling like a rock. I do expect that it hit the 61.8 fib level relatively short in the next few days. The data out of the UK today was mixed. Here is the data for today that came out of the UK at 9:30 GMT:

                                                                              Actual         Expected    Prior

Consumer Credit (Nov)                          £0.627B      £0.700B  £0.457B 

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Nov)                  0.0%                 0.1%                 

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (Nov)                   2.7%                    2.4%                   Mortgage Approvals (Nov)             70.758K    69.000K   68.029K         Revised from 67.701K        

           

Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) (Nov)       £1.5B  £2.0B  £1.7B             

PMI Construction (Dec)                              62.1        62.0    62.6               

As you can see the data is mixed.  The only good data was the Mortgage approvals and the PMI Construction for the month of December. The key fib level for 23.6% is 1.6167 and at the 38.2% fib level is 1.6649. At the 50.0% fib level, it is 1.7028 and at the 61.8% fib level is 1.7429. I do expect on previous occasions that I have said that I do expect downward movement. This pair been overbought for far too long and was in rising wedge pattern. I am looking and seeing follow thru on this. I am bearish on this pair at the moment.

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, it has moved to the upside and it is up $8.60. This is about +0.70% for today. It is currently trading at $1233.60. It is slowly ticking upward. I do not believe that we could an out bearishness like we saw year. It has trended down for long time. I do expect that it bounce like a beach ball very hard after being trashed in 2013. I am still cautiously bullish on gold at this point for now.

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $94.82 a barrel. It is down by 0.63%. It broke the support level on the daily chart at 95.47. This could very well test the bottom at November 27 low of right around $92.00 mark. Seeing it does remind that it could try to form a bottom and will have to wait and see if this is a start of new down trend or some consolidation that could be happening. It is neutral at the moment.

What is taking place at the moment is that the market is starting to reassess what the value really is. We may continue to see more of it as the month of January rolls on. It is not unlikely to see some corrections after seeing majority of pairs that overbought to start correcting.  The main theme of risk may not be completely solid like it has the past couple months. We could see more volatile markets and assessing what is the real and true value of the risk based assets going forward. Also, the markets are starting to realize that it needs to correct if it is to go higher over time. Whether we will see more risk aversion take hold is anyone’s guess at this point. Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the local charities especially be donating my profits to help out the food banks and local charities that work with needy families. This means if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. I will put out another report on Sunday for the weekend edition. Have great weekend and good luck trading for the rest of today.

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