Texas Trade Forex Report For the Week of 29-12-2013 thru 4-1-2014

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is the Sunday and Weekend Edition of Texas Trade Report reporting for the week of 29-12-2013 thru 01-04-2014. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this Sunday Weekend edition. I will be talking about the GPB/NZD, AUD/JPY, and NZD/CAD currency pairs, gold and oil in these week report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of a registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

GBP/NZD Daily Chart

Onto the focus of this week’s report, GBP/NZD is the first pair that I will be looking at for this report. On Friday, we closed at 2.0207 and made a high of 2.0242 on Friday on the daily chart. This pair is tending up and forming an upward moving channel on the daily chart.  The fib levels are 1.9369 at 50% level and 1.9602 at 61.8% level on the daily chart.  The only reports this week that we have that are coming out the UK are Markit Manufacturing PMI on January 2nd at 9:28 GMT. We have Consumer Credit on Friday, January 3rd at 9:30 GMT. The other reports we have for the UK are mortgage approvals at 9:30 GMT along with Net lending to individuals and PMI construction. There are no reports for New Zealand. I do expect this pair will continue to go up as we approach the new year. I do expect that we will open the new with all-time highs on the daily chart at the moment. I am still bullish for the short and medium term. Longer term, we have the RBNZ still wanting to hike rates in the new year. This could well hamper any moves higher. If we do get rate hikes in 2014. I do expect a pullback in the pair due to the rate hikes.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/JPY, we close at 93.27 on Friday and is the high on Friday. This pair has been trending sideways for some time. This pair does appear to be very range bound. The Bank of Japan does plan to continue to their stimulus program through 2014. Unlike of a lot of the other yen pairs that I saw, this one is more range bound than a lot of them. Here are the fib levels. The key fib level for 23.6% are 90.31 and at 38.2% fib level is 92.63. At the 50.0% fib level, it is 94.43 and at the 61.8% fib level 96.30. The Aussie has been hit hard this year. Normally, if it had been like two years or even three, you would not have seen this. But, news out of China and the slown down have hurt the Aussie dollar. At some point the Aussie will be very oversold. When become oversold to an extreme, you can expect a rebound. We might see a rebound into 2014. It is not like that it will happen at the end of this week being 2013. I am neutral until we can break out of this range bound pattern.

NZD/CAD Daily Chart

Onto the NZD/CAD, this pair has been trading up since the first of September of this year. We closed on Friday at 0.8717 and made a high of 0.8759. I do expect a bounce on this pair. The 23.6 fib level is at 0.8167 and 0.8299 at 38.2 percent fib level on the daily chart. The 50% fib level is at 0.8412 and 61.8 is 0.8520 on the daily chart.  This pair does appear to want to trend down. I do expect that we will hit the 61.8 fib level very soon. This pair has been on a tear since September. If it does hit the 61.8 level, you can expect it might bounce to continue the uptrend. We have wait and see if it holds or goes to the 50.0% fib level. I am staying neutral at this point until we have some confirmation of the bullish trend is still intacted.

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, we closed on Friday in the positive and is trading currently at $1214.20. Gold  is $1.50 higher. Gold was a causality this year and caught a lot people off guard.. It has been trending downward for a while. It is a part of the correcting process. I don’t expect a lot of volatility in the gold market as we approach New Year’s Eve. I do expect that we could start to more volatility in gold with regard to the Fed’s taper attempt in 2014 The fib levels on the daily chart are $1252.02 at the 23.6, $1268.13 at the 38.2% fib level, $1292.50 at the 50% level, at $1331.23 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.  I am going to hold my neutral bias for the time being we can break of the 38.2% fib level.

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it closed above $100 on Friday. What we need to watch events in the Middle East and China and Russia in the new year. This going to key that will influence price action with oil.  The oil markets are very independent of the Federal Reserve’s actions they will take. We could very well see very high oil prices and low gold prices. Oil is a wild card. I am still very bullish on oil at this point.. The next level of resistance on the daily chart is $104.12 resistance area.

I do expect less volume going into the new year. Just be careful out there. This year took many by surprise. We saw the rise of the USD and falling the Japanese Yen along with Commodities currencies like Aussie, the Kiwi and the Loonie falling, too. I don’t think that we will see the same repeat of 2013 in 2014 because they are different years and different things do happen. I believe there is less risk towards Tuesday being the last day of 2013 and we can see not people are going to take large risk because they are getting ready to close out their books. Good luck trading this week and I will put a daily report tomorrow.

Also, here is a little quick reminder. Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the locating charities especially after volunteering two days ago. This means if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. If you like the information that has been presented, bookmark this page and the Texas Trade Report Blog in your favorites and send link to it to everyone you know. Blog about it on Facebook, Twitter it to friends and family. That is the way it unfolds.