Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 30 December 2013

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 30 December 2013. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the EUR/NZD, NZD/CHF,GBP/CAD currency pairs, gold and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

EUR/NZD Daily Chart

Onto the EUR/NZD, this pair had made it as a high to 1.6914 the daily chart. It is currently trading at 1.6858. This pair has been trending upward since November 6, but is locked in a channel between 1.5568 and 1.7254. There are not news events for this week. I do expect that it try to test the high at 1.7254 on the daily chart. It will be interesting to see how this pair with be impacted in the new year with RBNZ and the prospect of rate hikes. The fib levels at 23.6% level are 1.5966 and 1.6211 at 38.2 fib level. At 50.0 % fib level is 1.6416. At 61.8 fib level is 1.6615. The pair still remains bullish for the short and medium term for now.

NZD/CHF Daily Chart

Onto the NZD/CHF, this pair has been trending down and is currently trading at 0.7267. This pair made a high of 0.7282. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.7310 and 38.2% fib level at 0.7441 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 0.7548 and at 61.8% fib level at 0.7650. Like the EUR/NZD, we won’t have any major news this week due to the New Year’s Day coming upon us. I do expect that it will test the low at 0.7104. It will find the bottom soon. I do expect that it will become oversold and those conditions to play itself out for a short term. I do not expect that it stay there for very long. The rate hikes in 2014 will come and most likely send this pair to the up. This will probably end the downtrend. I will remain neutral until we find a bottom on this pair.

 

GBP/CAD Daily Chart

Onto the GBP/CAD, this pair has been trending up. It is currently trading at 1.7615. It made a high of 1.7663. The key fib level for 23.6% are 1.6002 and at 38.2% fib level is 1.6301. At the 50.0% fib level, it is 1.6548 and at the 61.8% fib level 1.6781. This pair continues to trend up. These reports are coming on Friday, 3 January at 9:30 GMT. They are Purchasing Manager Index Construction (DEC), Net Consumer Credit (NOV) ,Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (NOV) ,Mortgage Approvals (NOV) ,M4 Money Supply (MoM) (NOV) ,M4 Money Supply (YoY) (NOV) ,M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (NOV). I am not expecting anything market moving to happen now until aft the start of the new year. It will be quiet for the most part toward end of day tomorrow being New Year’s Eve. I am still bullish for the medium term for right now.

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, it is down about $7.80,which about -0.64%. It is currently trading at $1206.20. I still believe that break above the $1265.95 and stay above it that would be bullish.  Right now, I believe are we going to form a bottom in the weeks. I believe it is a buying opportunity once a definite bottom has been form. At the moment, it is still pretty bearish for the moment and the rest of the end of this year tomorrow. Longer term, I don’t that it will stay there. I think we are just going to a retest of the lows in gold to see if they hold. I do expect that as soon as it does bottom that we could bounce. I am neutral for the short term.

 

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $99.68 a barrel and is down a little bit. It is down by 0.63%. The key fib levels for oil at 50.0% at $100.62 and 102.79 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.  We did see oil break above $100 on Friday. I don’t that we will still continue lower longer term. It will probably go down a little test the support at 98.17. Overall, I do see oil continuing higher longer term. I am still bullish on oil for now.

I think that we will still have very quiet markets for the most part and the conditions will remain weird until next week when we get back to normal trading conditions. Also, I do not think that the trends we saw last year will continue on forever.  I think that main theme we saw with the Aussie, Kiwi and the Lonnie will return because those are the norm normally that we saw over the last 5 years. I think it is premature to say that we are back to 2005 that many analysts and traders are shouting from the rooftops like the crisis back in Fall 2008 never happened. But, we need to pay attention the trends and possible themes that are on the charts only on the charts. We need to pay attention to risk themes and risk aversion .We need to pay attention the fundamentals as well as the technicals. Because what happens people become careless and make mistakes that are obviously overlooked. I believe we will see more risk aversion kick in during the coming year. I am not in the camp to forget the crisis that happened. It is too premature to act this way. Because when you act if it has never happen, you can find yourself on the wrong side of the trade. I have seen this time and time again. You don’t know what can happen. Anything can happen and the unexpected will make itself known. Always be prepared for the unexpected because it can catch people off guard. Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the local charities especially be donating my profits to help out the food banks and local charities that work with needy families. This means if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. I will put out another report out tomorrow. Have a great day  and good luck trading for the rest of today.

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