Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 17 December 2013

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 17 December 2013. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the GBP/AUD, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY currency pairs, gold and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

GBP/AUD Daily Chart

Onto the GPB/AUD, this pair has opened at its high 1.8227. It is currently trading at 1.8262. The CPI (MoM) came in 0.1% and stayed the same from the previous month . The CPI (YoY) came in at 2.1% versus 2.2% from previous month and came lower than expected. The PPI data came in mixed.  This pair is going higher. It has been in uptrend for a while. It looks slow to move quickly at this point. I am not expecting anything to change at this. It looks overbought at the moment. It is in a nice rising wedge pattern much like EUR/JPY. Unless we get some data out of Australia that indicates the Australian economy is changing course, this pair will continue to go higher short term.  Medium to longer term, this pair will retrace at some point  . I am expecting that it will the 1.7535 on the daily chart. It is still bullish at this point. Tomorrow at 9:30 GMT, we have the BOE MPC votes to cut and hike. Also, we have the Claimant Count Rate at GMT. This pair will continue to go higher for a little while longer. 

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/JPY, this pair is going downward. It is currently trading at 91.78. It open at the high of 92.29. We do expect soon a retest around the 86.67 area of support. This pair is stuck a range on the daily chart between 95.63 for the high and 86.67 for the low from 27th August 2013 until now.  It doesn’t appear to be stopping to go lower at this point. It is very much range bound.  If it continues lower to the 86.67 area and hold to form a bottom. I would expect buyers to come once a bottom has formed on this pair. When it does hit the support area on the daily chart, the first level of resistance is at 92.65 area of support. This pair fell from its high at 102.20 back in April. It has been ranging for a while. We have the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on 20 December, Friday. I do expect to hear how much does the BOJ plan on continuing run their stimulus program. If we hear that they are going to continue this will push the AUD/JPY higher. I am not expecting giant massive stimulus reaction like we had last year at this time. The reason is because the BOJ has made it clear that it doesn’t want to buy government like the Federal Reserve has done. At this point, I am neutral until it does find a bottom and hits the support level.

CAD/JPY Daily Chart

Onto the CAD/JPY, this pair has been trending up and is currently trading at 97.16. It opened at the high of 97.46. I do expect that it will hit the support level around 96.18. I am still expecting this pair to go higher. We should get some reaction from the BOJ and what they planning from the policy statement. As I said earlier, I am not expecting massive stimulus effort like last year. We should possibly see this pair retract a bit in the next few days. The stochastics are starting to want to turn toward the downside. This pair still looks bullish for the time being. I am bullish at this point.

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, at the moment, it does not appear that much has changed. It is still in downward trend. It has traded lower today. It is at $1232.80 and is down by $11.60. I am neutral until we hear something from the Federal Reserve and their actions regarding the taper. If they decided to delay the taper until the first quarter, it probably happen more likely around that time. I am not expecting an immediate tapering right away because it is too close to the end of the year. The taper will be gradual and not fast type of taper.

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $97.83 a barrel. It made a high at $98.10 a barrel. It is slowing making its way upward. I do expect that oil will go higher longer term. It has been down trend for some time. The resistance line is at $103.60. I do expect that it will touch it. I do expect that it break above in the longer term. This is what appears at the moment.

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I am still patiently waiting to see if risk trends play itself out and close out the year higher or will risk aversion kick in. The most likely of scenarios is that risk trends will continue. It is unlikely that we will see any kind of risk aversion at the moment. However, things can change. We need to be careful because anything can happen. Take care and good luck trading today.  I will put out a daily report tomorrow. We will see what happens in the markets tomorrow.

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