Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 12 December 2013

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 12 December 2013. I will be talking about the EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, and AUD/CAD currency pairs, Gold and Oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

Onto the EUR/JPY, this pair had made it as a high to 142.09 the daily chart. The Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) came in 0.7% and was at the same level from the previous month. The Consumer Price Index (MoM) for November came in at -0.3% and stay the same from the previous month. Draghi gave his comments saying he would like to see a lower Euro. He was concern that a strong Euro was hurting exports. He might get his wish. Right now, the EUR/JPY is trading at 141.60. It had moved up in anticipation to 142.09 prior to his speech. A lot of Euro bulls were hoping that he would say something positive. It is at the moment after his speech not panning out that way.  This pair has been a rising wedge since November 5. It has been extremely overbought for a while. It needs a nice healthy retracement. When a currency pair gets overbought too quickly, you get a nicer down move on it. It is very steep. I still hold a bearish view of this pair. On weekly time frame, you can see it has been trading positively for 4 weeks straight in a row. I believe that it can’t continue to go higher until it can retrace to test the support. If the data out of Europe is positive, you will see a Euro continue go higher. You need to see the theme of risk trends in place as well. If the trading volume doesn’t justify it going, there is not a need to be to look at on the buy side until we can get a retracement. Draghi’s comments indicate that he still wants negative interest rates. Negative interest rates do to the person in that holds their money bank is the bank end up charging you for holding your money instead of paying you interest that you pay them interest. This is what this deal is about and is coming out Draghi’s mouth. There was talk of a banking union to solidify the monetary policy and German data from two days ago was not good. This helps to confirm our bearish bias overall. It can be seen on the daily timeframe and weekly timeframe of being overbought. We will remain bearish for the time being and would to see if it can make the 135.00 level on a daily timeframe  to remain on a bullish scenario.

 

EUR/JPY Daily Timeframe 

EUR/JPY Weekly Timeframe

Onto the CAD/JPY, this pair has been trading sideways for the moment. It is currently trading at 96.83. It made a high of 97.35. If this pair retests the 95.52 area of support, it can confirm the start of bullish trend on the daily chart. The stochastics are indicating that it can go down for the time being. It may do so in the short to medium term. The data that came of Japan came yesterday slightly positive. We can see a rebound in the Yen happening at the moment. There was more foreign investment in the Japanese bond buying that number came in at 413.2 billion Yen versus 65.5 billion Yen. This tells that the Yen is attracting foreign investment into the Yen. There is nothing major on the Canadian side for data at the moment. This pair looks like that it could be on a bullish trend. We will have to test 95.52 to see if it does say bullish. It did test the July 2013 highs around 97.35. If we get a retest and break beyond the 97.35, the outlook would change to bullish. At the moment it has been range trading since June 2013. The bottom of this range goes to 92.33. There is 500 pip range for this pair over the past 6 months or so. I put a trend line to highlight the support at 95.52 for the start of bullish trend. We will remain bullish on this pair when we can get a retest at 95.52 and break above the June 2013 highs.

                                                          CAD/JPY Daily Timeframe

Onto the AUD/CAD, this pair has been going down even after the positive job numbers that came out for Australia. Fulltime employment change came in at 21,000 versus -700. It was expected at 10,000 jobs. Fulltime employment came at 15,500 versus -31,100 from the previous month. Normally, we would have seen the Aussie remain positively through the day and would been reflected that way. It looks that many people are not interested in buying it even though the numbers came in good and better than expected. We could see a test of 0.9358 for the lows on the weekly time frame. It is currently trading at 0.9499. It had made to a high of 0.9607. It is starting to hit the bottom of the upward trend line that I drew on the chart. We could see a retest of 9358 was a low back in August 2013. I do expect that we could possible see a test of the support hold and bounce up if it is possible. At moment, it appears that it is downward for the short and medium term.  Early in the Asian session China was worried about the selloff in the Aussie. This started the downward pressure on the Aussie. I do expect a bounce it could signal a start of a bullish trend on the daily chart.

                                                      AUD/CAD Daily Timeframe

Onto gold, I have not talk about gold before. It will be apart of this report from now on. I know this report could disappoint gold bugs. So let’s look at gold for the moment. It has been trending downward for a while.  There is talk of taper by the Fed. This has not been helpful to gold as evidence that we can see it has been down for a while since August 2014 when it made highs of 1414.77. It made a low at 1211.09. It will trade sideways for the time being and may test those lows and break it test even further.  This is probably due to the numbers coming out of the US and the taper that is coming. It is down about $30. I will remain neutral on gold for right now.

                                                         Gold Daily Timeframe

Onto oil, I have not talked about oil. I will start talking about it. It made a low of $91.84 in 26th of November  2013. It is trying to form a bottom and may trade downward to form the bottom in oil. There is less demand for oil in the Northern hemisphere than in the summer. So, we can expect that the price will come down because of less demand for it. The high is at $98.72 and made the high 2 days ago. I do expect it form a bottom and looks like it might try to break the downtrend. It could very well do so. I am going to remain neutral on oil until a bottom is formed.

                                                               Oil Daily Timeframe

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I have been using the Forex Trendy tool to help assemble this report for the currency pairs. It has done fabulous job of finding these trade possibilities. Also, I will highlighting gold and oil in the report during the week. Please, expect it because it will be apart of the report from now on. I am doing as a courtesey and for our gold investors and they want to know. I will be paying the rest of the day to see if we continue to stay in tight range or go higher overall. We will see what happens for the remaining I did in yesterday weekly report. I am buying gold and silver for the show of my own hard work at trading and a reminder to store it as measure of wealth longer term. Don’t take this as recommendation. It is something that I am doing with my own profits. Take care and good luck trading this week.  I will put out a daily report. We will see what happens in the markets tomorrow.

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