Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 31 December 2013

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 31 December 2013. I am Liz S, your currency analyst for this daily edition.  I will be talking about the NZD/USD, AUD/USD,USD/CAD currency pairs, gold and oil in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Onto the NZD/USD, this pair had made it as a high to 0.8226 the daily chart. It is currently trading at 0.8218. This pair has been trending downward since November 17. We do have news events for the US on January 2nd. Here they are:

13:30                          Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 27)                                                     

13:30                          Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 20)                                          

13:58                          Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec)                                                  

15:00                          Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov)                              

15:00                          ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)                                          

15:00                          ISM Prices Paid (Dec)

I am expecting the interest rate hikes from the RBNZ will break the downtrend and could wash out the effect of the taper. This will create choppy price action. I do expect to see very choppy price. We have seen the Kiwi bounce back faster than the Aussie. The Kiwi is very resilient. I do expect that the effects of the taper not to be effective on the Kiwi going into 2014.  The fib levels at 23.6% level are 0.78974 and 0.8022 at 38.2 fib level. At 50.0 % fib level is 0.8125. At 61.8 fib level is 0.8226. Even though it looks bearish at the moment, I am slightly bullish longer term on the Kiwi.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Onto the AUD/USD, this pair has been trending down and is currently trading at 0.. This pair made a high of 0.8944. The fib levels are for 23.6% at 0.9053 and 38.2% fib level at 0.9189 on the daily chart. At 50.0% fib level is 0.9297 and at 61.8% fib level at 0.9405. This pair has been struggling to stay up. In the past, the Aussie was the star performer. It was going up. This past year was not very kind to the Aussie. It took people by surprise. This pair may still go down a little bit. I don’t believe that it will stay there forever. It still looks bearish short and medium term. Longer term, I think we could see a bounce. I don’t that can stay down forever. The prospect of China cleaning up economy will benefit the Aussie. We do see some evidence of it. It will take bit longer for the Aussie to recover. I am slightly bullish longer term. In the short term and medium, I am neutral at this point.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Onto the USD/CAD, this pair has been trending up. It is currently trading at 1.0633. It made a high of 1.0655. The key fib level for 23.6% are 1.0260 and at 38.2% fib level is 1.0353. At the 50.0% fib level, it is 1.0426 and at the 61.8% fib level 1.0499.  I do expect this pair to reverse. The price in oil is big factor. I do see higher oil prices overall. The high price in oil will affect the price movement of this pair. This pair has been trending up since October 29. I don’t expect the trend to hold longer term and expecting to reverse course to head south. This pair remains bullish short term and medium term. Longer term is a different story. I am bearish longer term.

Gold Daily Chart

Onto gold, it is down about $17.40, which about -1.45%. It is currently trading at $1187.20. Gold took a dive today. At the moment, it is trying find bottom. This what is happening. It still may go down a little bit more. I don’t think we will see $500-700 as the analysts are proclaiming already. As soon as it does bottom out, gold will bounce back. It is beach ball can be submerged for a little while but not forever. I am going with what is currently on the charts. I still hold the view that we need to break the major fib levels. Generally, We are not seeing a lot of buying of gold right now. This can change. We still need to pay attention the US treasury market longer term. If the analysts are acting like something could not ever happen, watch out. These are true signs of a bubble on US treasury bonds. The bonds won’t stay low forever and will spike. The US being able to service its debt can throw this in question. This will send people to gold. This is warning flag. We need to be careful and look at the charts. Gold is trying to find a bottom. I am still neutral until we do bottom.

Oil Daily Chart

Onto oil, it is currently trading at $98.37 a barrel and is down a bit. It is down by -0.91%. The key fib levels for oil at 50.0% at $100.62 and 102.79 at 61.8 fib level on the daily chart. I believe still that it will go down to test the support level at 98.17. I am still firmly bullish on oil longer term.  

We are not going to get a lot of movement today. I do expect in the new year that this will change. We could see that the theme of risk in the coming year be hampered. There is the spectre of the tamper in March that could do some damage if things are not price in. This could be a warning sign of things to come. We do need to pay attention the US bond market. This will tells us if other countries are still interested in buying US treasury debt.   Risk trends in the coming year may not hold if this happens. I am being more cautious in the coming year. I am looking the possibility of what could play out. Many traders and analysts are wanting to salivate things going higher. I am not in that camp because I need to see some meaningful follow through and need to see some corrections to make sure that the bullish trends we did see to do hold for the mean time. Also, I will donating some of the commissions as an affiliate from the products and service anyone buys from this website to the local charities especially be donating my profits to help out the food banks and local charities that work with needy families. This means if you buy gold and silver from Regal Assets, I will donate 10% of my sales commissions as an affiliate spokesperson. Just a slide not, the Texas Trade Report will be closed on News Year Day and will reopen on Jan 2nd. I want to everyone to go out and have good time tonight on New Year’s Eve. Make those New Year’s resolutions meaningful and have great day. Be safe and be well. Happy New Year to everyone. G-d Bless.

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