Good
Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This
is Texas Trade Report for 13 December 2013. I will be talking about the AUD/USD,
GBP/AUD and NZD/USD currency pairs, gold and oil in this daily report. This is
sole focus of this report. Before I can go any further, here is the risk
disclaimer.
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.
Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Onto the
AUD/USD, this pair had made it as a low to 0.8909 and a high of 0.8962 on the
daily chart. Reserve Bank President made remarks that he would like to see a
cheaper Aussie because it helps exports. The pair is currently trading at
0.8933 at the moment of writing this report. The pair has been trending down
and is in a descending wedge pattern on the daily chart. The next set of the
lows are around the August 2013 and are 0.8852.I do expect that it get there
soon. On a weekly chart, it looks interesting. The lows on the weekly chart are
0.8125. I am expecting that in next few weeks we may get there as it looks for
the time. If it makes it there, I do expect bounce from there and probably
trade sideways on the weekly for a while. There were not any economic reports
yesterday that were major. It looks like will trend down for a while longer. It
looks that way for the time being. Just remember things don’t always stay
bearish forever. Let’s wait and see what happens.
Onto the
GBP/AUD, this pair has been trading upward and is in a rising wedge like the
EUR/JPY that we talked about yesterday on a daily chart. It is currently
trading at 1.8217. It made a high of 1.8300 on the daily chart. A break of the
rising wedge at 1.7955, it would indication that we have broken out of this pattern.
If this pair can touch the 1.7428, this would allow the bullish momentum to
hold right around there. The 1.7428. There were no major events out of the UK
today. The pair looks bullish for the most pair. I would like to see a break of
the rising wedge and re-test around 1.7339. This pair is more volatile than
GBP/JPY. I do expect it test the support to see if it hold around there. I am
bullish on the GBP/AUD just looking what the chart shows. Also, let’s wait and
see if the bullish momentum holds and test the support line. The trend is very
bullish at this time.
NZD/USD Daily Chart
NZD/USD Weekly Chart
Onto the
NZD/USD, this pair has been going down and looks to be forming downward wedge
pattern on the daily chart. This pair is
currently trading at 0.8236. The daily high is at 0.8253. The low is just shy
of 0.8204. This pair does show it going lower for the time being. I do expect
that it will get to test the lows of 0.8086. Those lows happen in November 28
of this year. On the weekly chart it looks that it has been stuck in tight
range between the high of 0.8832, which is the high for May 2011. The lows are
around the 0.7442 on the weekly chart. I do expect that it will get there soon.
Reserve Bank Chairman Graeme Wheeler of New Zealand indicated
that he introduce limits on mortgage lending to control booming housing market.
The bank is still hinting at hiking interest rates in the second half of 2014.
I am bullish the NZD/USD long term when those interest rate hikes do happen.
For now in the short and medium, we remain bearish until it the completion of
descending wedge that is forming.
Gold Weekly Chart
Onto gold,
it made a low $1221.10 and daily high at $1235.46. It looks like that this
still falling. It needs to break $1267.74 above become bullish. It is still
falling this point. As the US dollar gets strong, you may still see gold fall
little bit. There is still the talk of tapering happening. There has been talk
about tapering at the December Federal Reserve meeting. We will have to wait
and see if we get the talk and hear what the plans are. I am neutral from a
trading standpoint. We need to hold $1182.98 as support I don’t think the Fed
will start tapering right away in December. You will start to see it in the
first half of 2014 for tapering. This is probably more likely than anything. On
the weekly chart for gold at $1437.31, it would have to break to become bullish
longer term.
Oil Daily Chart
Onto oil,
it made a daily high of $97.61 and daily low of $96.24. It is trending downward
for the time being. It will hit the low around the $92.00 area soon. If oil breaks
$98.76, I would be interested in buying at above it. Oil is currently trading
at 96.40. I am bearish on oil at this time. I will wait until we can break the
downward trend on oil.
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