Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 10 December 2013

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 10 December 2013. I will be talking about the EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD currency pairs in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

Onto the EUR/JPY, this pair had made it up to 142.03. It retraced to 141.42. I stated previously that pair had been extremely overbought. It is starting to show signs of backing down. I check the volumes indicator, the volume was very low. Usually, you would have a lot of high volume indicated in green for buying. The volume didn’t justify buying even it was rocketing towards the top. This will start to show signs of retracing. It had become a one way trade for too long. Usually when it gets too overbought like this one had. It will go back the other way. Many of the Yen crosses like this one have reach pre-2008 levels. But many traders are getting tricked into thinking that much of the debt crisis never really happen. But, here again, many of these Yen pairs are being jacked up by Japan’s monetary policy of money printing. It makes it look better than it is. Just be super careful when trading any kind of Yen pairs especially in the month of December because there lower volume and lack of liquidity in the market. You can expect a one way trade pretty much. However, I do expect that we will see larger retracement on this pair soon. Because of the lack of volume and the debt crisis being papered over. I remind many traders the debt crisis is not over with. It has been papered over and be careful to believe what the financial media has put out there. I do expect this pair will have to go back to 135.00 and it has been in rising wedge for some time. It has been in this type of pattern since 5th of November 2013. It is starting to break down at the moment. We have one red candle on the daily chart. I do expect things to break down over the next several days to indication the retracement and support if this pair is go higher. With Japan, we have Domestic Corporate Good Price Index reports for the month of November being released for Mom to date and Year to date at 23:50 GMT. We will find out if there is any effect on the Yen and helping out the rebound in the Yen.

  

Onto the AUD/USD, this pair is going back up. It is currently trading at 0.9135. I expect this to go a bit higher for the time being. I don’t expect this to stay down. The one thing about the Aussie it does not stay down forever. No matter what a lot of traders want it to. It has to find a bottom. I believe that it will find one soon and continue it track up. If it can continue, the next available high is 0.9428 on the daily chart as resistance. I believe it will break through it at some point soon. Also, we have on at 23:30 GMT the Westpac Consumer Confidence report and Westpac Consumer Index report coming out. This should help the Aussie get a better footing to upside if the news is good. If not, it will probably go a little lower. I don’t expect this hold forever. We have to wait and see what happens. I am confident that we could see some upside on the Aussie. Plus, I am expecting the changes economically coming out of Tony Abbot’s coalition government to affect the Aussie dollar positively and scraping the carbon tax and mining tax. This will be a benefit for the jobs picture in Australia. Because nothing stays in one place especially in the currency markets forever. Gravity takes hold and reverses things to go in the other directions. Also, the data of out the US has been good for the moment. I am waiting to see if it continues to play out.

 

Onto the NZD/USD, this pair has had a head and shoulders pattern for a while. It looks like a rising wedge is starting to form on it. It can be difficult to short. Also, the Kiwi is very resilient and can go up and fight the USD bulls and let them know they are on a short leash. It can bulldoze them. It has the reputation for doing so. The volume is not there to keep down. I expect there will be more risk taking amongst retail traders to buy. Also, we are heading into 2014 and the rate hikes are going take place then. I am expecting this pair to continue to the upside for a bit. It is trading at 0.8319. I do expect the currency pair to test the highs between 0.8426 and 0.8526. We have an interest rate decision coming out tomorrow at 20:00 GMT along with the policy statement and press conference. I do expect to hear where the Reserve Bank of New Zealand wants to see the Kiwi go. I am expecting to hear more about the Housing market from the monetary statement and press conference.  I do expect that the Kiwi to continue going up for a while. I am super cautious with lack of liquidity and we should see what happens from the interest rate decision tomorrow along the press conference from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chairman Graeme Wheeler where he would like see the Kiwi go. Also, I am expecting some affect from the reports from Australia because it could have effect on the direction of the Kiwi because they move together usually.  We have to wait and see on the direction of the Kiwi from the RBNZ.

 

 I will be paying the rest of the day to see if we continue to stay in tight range or go higher overall. We will see what happens for the remaining I did in the Sunday weekly report. I am buying gold and silver. Don’t take this as recommendation. It is something that I am doing with my own profits. Take care and good luck trading today.  I will put out a daily report. We will see what happens in the markets tomorrow. 

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