Texas Trade Report Daily Report For 9 December 2013

Good Morning, Good Afternoon or Good Evening where ever you are in the world. This is Texas Trade Report for 9 December 2013. I will be talking about the GBP/AUD, AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD currency pairs in this daily report. This is sole focus of this report.  Before I can go any further, here is the risk disclaimer.

Risk Disclaimer:
  Trading Forex is a risky business and sometimes you will lose the money that you traded. You are leveraged 50:1 or even more. There is the risk of loss of the money have invested. Never invest money that you are not committed losing. There is a possibility of losing your original investment. If you are not sure about investing, seek the help of registered investment adviser.

Also, the purpose of this trading lesson is education. This does not constitute trading advice. Nor do I give out trading signals. All opinions are my own and not Blogger.com nor Google.com.

Onto the AUD/CAD, this pair had opened higher on the news of the Chinese trade balance figures on Sunday at 5 pm EST. The currency pair did manage to open at 0.9718 and is ranging as the time of writing this report. It is currently trading at 0.9682. I do believe that it is bottoming and will try test the lows. It has been on a weekly time frame trending down. I do expect that economic activity out of Australia to improve as the Abbot government will lower the taxes and make other improvements, which should boost confidence in the Australia economy and the Aussie dollar.  Over the weekend, we had positive trade balance numbers coming out of China and the trade balance figures came out at 33.801B versus 31.100B from previous month. The numbers for Consumer Price Index came in at 3.0% versus 3.2% from the previous month for year to date. The Consumer Price Index for just the month of November came in at -0.1% versus 0.1% from the previous month. The Producer Price Index numbers came in at -1.4% versus -1.5% from the previous month for year to date. I do expect this pair to range probably for little while longer before finally bottoming at in the near future. At this point, I am not ready to start calling a bottom at exact point. We may still make new lows. We will have to see. I do expect the numbers of out China to improve longer term. This will be a boost for the Aussie dollar as the numbers improve longer term.

 

On to NZD/CAD, the Kiwi dollar is very resilient compared to its major counterparts, most analysts overlooks this. We at the Texas Trade Report don’t overlook it. The Kiwi did manage to go a little lower and is ranging trading much like the Aussie. This pair is uptrend and manages to hold on to the trend. We did open higher on Sunday at 8821. We are trading the same point we opened at. It did go lower to 0.8804 it recoups back to 0.8821. I do expect this pair will be one to pay attention over the coming days and weeks as well as months. The reason is interest rate hikes coming out of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 2014. I believe that the Kiwi will go higher. This one is that many analysts are not paying attention to. It will be a sleeper while many are too focused on the US dollar and the Euro. We will be paying attention. I don’t think effects the taper will affect this as much because the interest rate hikes and washing away the effects of the taper. It could trend higher over the longer term. The numbers out of China did affect the Kiwi. It is much smaller than the Aussie. I do expect this pair go higher as long as the news out of China remains positive longer term. We have interest rate decision for New Zealand on Wednesday December 11th at 20:00 GMT. I expect that we hear more about the direction for the Kiwi and about the possibility rate hikes from the policy statement at that time.

On to the GBP/AUD currency pair, the pair is currently trading at 1.8014. I do expect that this could go lower. But, it has been fight between Australia and the UK whose economic situations are improving. This pair can range, but it can go lower.  I do expect that with numbers coming out the UK, we will see less easing from the Bank of England. We are at all-time highs for the GBP/AUD. The support level is at 1.7406 I do expect this pair to test it. It can go higher. It will retrace to test it. The one thing about this pair it is way more volatile than GBP/JPY. It is pound pair on steroids. There is not any event risk for the UK this week. I am not expecting anything earth shattering with the UK. I do expect a retest some point in the future. We have Business Confident report for Australia coming out Tuesday 00:30 GMT. I do expect that if we get a positive number we move higher. If the number is not good, I expect this pair to go a bit lower. I do expect things to improve for the Australian economy with what is being planned by the Abbott government. As I said earlier that I expect the Australian economy and a higher Aussie dollar longer term we had positive numbers as I said earlier. We will have to see what happens.

I have been using the Forex Trendy tool to help assemble this report. It has done fabulous job of finding these trade possibilities. I will be paying the rest of the day to see if we continue to stay in tight range or go higher overall. We will see what happens for the remaining I did in yesterday weekly report. Don’t forget to put some of those profits in gold and silver as a show of your hard work. Take care and good luck trading this week. I will put out a daily report. We will see what happens in the markets tomorrow.

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